Science is like the Digital Twin of our World

“Without data you’re just another person with an opinion.”
W. Edwards Deming

Consider driving through a foggy night. Because of limited clarity we drive more slowly and cautiously, or risk making mistakes, perhaps causing or coming to harm.

When understanding is flawed or insufficient, we make decisions more slowly, in order to react and readjust. Uncertainty and ignorance result in wasted time, effort, and resources, endangering individuals, as well as wider systems such as our economy.

Digital Twin is a concept used by the U.S. military to better understand mission readiness of equipment, by linking sensors to digital (software) models that then advise on operation and maintenance. As data pour in, they make these models more accurate, helping decision-makers move more quickly and act more confidently. For such crucial products as jet engines, power plants and locomotives, GE built on the concept of Digital Twin to reduce uncertainty, thus risk and cost, while continually improving the performance and reliability of the products in real user-operational environments.

Science is the tool by which humans and their enterprises better perceive and understand themselves, each other, the world around them and the universe, by perpetually correcting our flawed notions about how the world works. In essence, science is the process by which we create and test models to match what we observe around us, and give humans some capability to predict outcomes.

These models may at times contradict each other, requiring revision as new discoveries are made, but this ongoing process of self-examination and debate ensures the models continually improve in accuracy and completeness. Though always with footnotes of caveats and never completely right, over time models continually become less-wrong.

“All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
George E. P. Box

While science will never build a model to completely explain the universe, scientists devote themselves to collecting and analyzing data through sensors and experiments. New discoveries test the relative strength of scientific models, correcting or even rejecting many of them in a competitive process that markets could only dream-of. Through the tools of science, we not only build knowledge, but zero in on each others’ mistakes to reduce uncertainty and thus risk. Uncertainty and risk hold back economic growth, reduce availability of resources, raise costs and hinder job creation and retention. What might flourish as our systems, our industries, our institutions, our politicians become more clear-sighted and able to act more swiftly and with greater confidence?

Let’s turn the headlights, check the navigation app and shift into higher gear!

© 2017 Richard Arthur. All Rights Reserved. Thanks to David Brin for edits.